New Seat Details - Milton Keynes North East

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Milton Keynes North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	29,684	49.0%
LAB	26,273	43.4%
LIB	2,192	3.6%
UKIP	1,224	2.0%
Green	1,058	1.7%
OTH	94	0.2%
CON Majority	3,411	5.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Milton Keynes North East: Map

List of old seats forming part of Milton Keynes North East

Old seat: Milton Keynes North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Milton Keynes North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Milton Keynes North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Milton Keynes	Bradwell	6,013	Milton Keynes South	1,851	2,325	213	129	81	0	0	23	4,622
Milton Keynes	Broughton	8,239	Milton Keynes North East	2,966	2,003	226	61	88	0	0	7	5,351
Milton Keynes	Campbell Park and Old Woughton	8,030	Milton Keynes North East	2,919	2,582	256	161	113	0	0	19	6,050
Milton Keynes	Central Milton Keynes	7,840	Milton Keynes North East	3,039	4,327	311	94	138	0	0	27	7,936
Milton Keynes	Monkston	3,584	Milton Keynes North East	1,541	1,234	127	36	52	0	0	3	2,993
Milton Keynes	Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope	9,451	Milton Keynes North East	3,548	2,108	239	148	98	0	0	12	6,153
Milton Keynes	Newport Pagnell South	8,748	Milton Keynes North East	3,077	2,459	311	171	119	0	0	7	6,144
Milton Keynes	Olney	9,307	Milton Keynes North East	4,040	1,907	163	127	99	0	0	16	6,352
Milton Keynes	Stantonbury	10,139	Milton Keynes South	3,394	3,653	324	196	133	0	0	13	7,713
Milton Keynes	Wolverton	9,857	Buckingham and Milton Keynes West	2,961	3,767	250	186	136	0	0	38	7,338
Milton Keynes	Woughton and Fishermead	3,131	Milton Keynes North East	971	2,027	79	81	51	0	0	3	3,212
	Total	84,339		30,307	28,392	2,499	1,390	1,108	0	0	168	63,864

The full details of these calculations are given on the Milton Keynes North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Milton Keynes South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Milton Keynes South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Milton Keynes South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Milton Keynes	Bletchley East	9,140	Milton Keynes South	2,706	3,352	124	210	118	0	0	0	6,510
Milton Keynes	Bletchley Park	10,204	Milton Keynes South	3,426	3,263	177	232	123	0	0	0	7,221
Milton Keynes	Bletchley West	10,136	Milton Keynes South	3,451	3,385	200	246	130	0	0	0	7,412
Milton Keynes	Bradwell	2,860	Milton Keynes South	856	1,086	84	75	40	0	0	0	2,141
Milton Keynes	Campbell Park and Old Woughton	790	Milton Keynes North East	279	249	21	19	12	0	0	0	580
Milton Keynes	Danesborough and Walton	8,563	Milton Keynes North East	3,543	2,069	198	83	110	0	0	0	6,003
Milton Keynes	Loughton and Shenley	9,556	Milton Keynes South	3,726	2,913	239	197	126	0	0	0	7,201
Milton Keynes	Monkston	4,606	Milton Keynes North East	1,948	1,533	136	58	73	0	0	0	3,748
Milton Keynes	Shenley Brook End	8,953	Milton Keynes South	3,368	2,938	263	217	138	0	0	0	6,924
Milton Keynes	Stony Stratford	7,408	Buckingham and Milton Keynes West	2,682	2,309	150	165	114	0	0	0	5,420
Milton Keynes	Tattenhoe	7,373	Milton Keynes South	2,852	2,056	179	144	88	0	0	0	5,319
Milton Keynes	Woughton and Fishermead	6,005	Milton Keynes North East	1,813	3,775	125	185	105	0	0	0	6,003
	Total	85,594		30,650	28,928	1,896	1,831	1,177	0	0	0	64,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Milton Keynes South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Milton Keynes North East

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Milton Keynes North East
Milton Keynes	Broughton	7,480	Milton Keynes North	2,966	2,003	226	61	88	0	0	7	5,351
Milton Keynes	Campbell Park and Old Woughton	8,458	Milton Keynes North	2,919	2,582	256	161	113	0	0	19	6,050
Milton Keynes	Campbell Park and Old Woughton	832	Milton Keynes South	279	249	21	19	12	0	0	0	580
Milton Keynes	Central Milton Keynes	11,093	Milton Keynes North	3,039	4,327	311	94	138	0	0	27	7,936
Milton Keynes	Danesborough and Walton	8,611	Milton Keynes South	3,543	2,069	198	83	110	0	0	0	6,003
Milton Keynes	Monkston	4,184	Milton Keynes North	1,541	1,234	127	36	52	0	0	3	2,993
Milton Keynes	Monkston	5,377	Milton Keynes South	1,948	1,533	136	58	73	0	0	0	3,748
Milton Keynes	Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope	8,599	Milton Keynes North	3,548	2,108	239	148	98	0	0	12	6,153
Milton Keynes	Newport Pagnell South	8,588	Milton Keynes North	3,077	2,459	311	171	119	0	0	7	6,144
Milton Keynes	Olney	8,880	Milton Keynes North	4,040	1,907	163	127	99	0	0	16	6,352
Milton Keynes	Woughton and Fishermead	4,490	Milton Keynes North	971	2,027	79	81	51	0	0	3	3,212
Milton Keynes	Woughton and Fishermead	8,610	Milton Keynes South	1,813	3,775	125	185	105	0	0	0	6,003
	Total	85,202		29,684	26,273	2,192	1,224	1,058	0	0	94	60,525

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Milton Keynes North East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Mark Lancaster (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	85,202
Turnout:	71.0%

Milton Keynes North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Milton Keynes North East: Overview

Introduction